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GDP Falls To 1.50% From 1.95% In 2nd Quarter Of 2018

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product [GDP]  fell in the second quarter of 2018 to 1.50%, away from the 1.95% recorded in the first quarter of same year, according to data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics [NBS].

The development, however, is a far cry from the previous administration which saw growths of 6.21% of first quarter of 2014.

In the same year, second quarter saw 6.54%, growth, while third and fourth quarters saw 6.23% and 5.94% respectively.

In 2015, first to fourth quarters recorded 3.96%, 2.35%, 2.84% and 2.11% respectively.

In 2016, Nigeria fell into recession with -0.67%, -1.49%, -2.34% and -1.73% in the four quarters.

In 2017, Nigeria crawled out of recession with -0.91% in the first quarter, followed by 0.72%, 1.17% and 2.11% in subsequent quarters.

See table:

In second quarter of 2018, meanwhile, the country’s GDP recorded a shortfall.

See attached an NBS report covering four major areas of the economy, viz:

  • GDP
  • Road
  • Petroleum
  • Importation

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [GDP] REPORT (Q2 2018)

In the second quarter of 2018, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.50% (year-on-year) in real terms to N16.58 trillion.

Growth in Q2 2018 was 0.79% points higher when compared to the second quarter of 2017 which recorded a growth of 0.72%, but –0.45% points slower than 1.95% recorded in the first quarter of 2018.

On a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP growth was 2.94%.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N30.69 trillion in nominal terms. This represents a 7.85% increase in nominal GDP when compared to the preceding quarter (N28.46 trillion) and 13.57% increase when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2017 (N27.03 trillion).

For better clarity, the Nigerian economy can be classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors .

Broadly speaking, growth in Q2 2018 was driven by developments in the non-oil sector as Services sector recorded its strongest positive growth since 2016.

However, the relatively slower growth when compared to Q1 2018 and Q2 2017 could be attributed to developments in both the oil and non-oil sectors.

ROAD TRANSPORT DATA (Q2 2018)

The Q2 2018 road transport data reflected that 2,608 road crashes occurred within the quarter under review.

Speed violation is reported as the major cause of road crashes in Q2 and it accounted for 50.65% of the total road crashes reported.

Tyre burst and dangerous driving followed closely as they both accounted for 8.59% and 8.40% of the total road crashes recorded.

A total of 8,437 Nigerians got injured in the road traffic crashes recorded.

7,946 of the 8,437 Nigerians that got injured, representing 94% of the figure, are adults while the remaining 491 Nigerians, representing 6% of the figure are children.

6,415 male Nigerians, representing 76%, got injured in road crashes in Q2 while 2,022 female Nigerians, representing 24% got injured.

Similarly, a total of 1,331 Nigerians got killed in the road traffic crashes recorded in Q2 2018. 1,257 of the 1,331 Nigerians that got killed, representing 94% of the figure, are adults while the remaining 74 Nigerians, representing 6% of the figure are children.

1,047 male Nigerians, representing 79%, got killed in road crashes in Q2 while 284 female Nigerians, representing 21% got killed.

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IMPORTATION & CONSUMPTION: (Q2 2018)

The petroleum products importation and truck-out statistics for Q2 2018 reflected that 165.71 mln litres of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) were imported into the country in Q2 2018.

The months of April 2018 recorded the highest volumes of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) imported into the country at 59.89 mln litres while the lowest volume were imported in June 2018.

Statewide distribution of truck-out volume for Q2 2018 showed that 105.49mln of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) were distributed nationwide during the period under review.

NIGERIAN CAPITAL IMPORTATION (Q2 2018)

The total value of capital importation into Nigeria stood at $ 5,513.55 million in the second quarter of 2018. This was a decrease of 12.53% compared to Q1 2018, but a 207.62% increase compared to the second quarter of 2017.

The decline recorded in the second quarter was as a result of a decline in Portfolio and Other Investments, which declined by 9.76% and 24.07% respectively.

The largest amount of capital importation by type was received through Portfolio investment, which accounted for 74.7% ($4,119.5m) of total capital importation, followed by Other Investment, which accounted for 20.5% ($1,132.8m) of total capital, and then Foreign Direct Investment FDI, which accounted for 4.7% ($261.4m) of total capital imported in the second quarter.

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