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Osun guber sent shock-waves across Nigeria!

By Ogbuefi Ndigbo

Reno Omokri wrote on Twitter:
“Have you noticed how quiet it has been on the timelines of the APC on Twitter and Facebook? Their usually hyperactive Twitter and Facebook accounts have not tweeted for 3 days. Similarly President Buhari and Vice President Osinbajo have been quiet. The Osun situation has stunned them.”
In my opinion however, it’s not just Buharists, I think Osun guber sent shockwaves across the entire political firmament – Less rigging and less vote buying.
It’s now perform or be punished at the polls
INEC may save Nigeria after all!
I’ve just analysed the pattern of voting in the 2011 and 2015 elections.
I believe there was massive inflation of votes in Jigawa, Kano, Kaduna and Katsina in 2011 and 2015, and in Anambra, Imo, Abia, Delta and Rivers in 2011.
With card readers now in place, 2019 elections will be very interesting.
Again, if you compare the voting pattern in 2011 and 2015, especially in the south west and north central in 2011 and 2015, APC will face an uphill struggle next year especially with massive defections and the level of camaraderie among PDP presidential contestants, there appears to be unanimous agreement among Nigeria political gladiators to have Buhari out by all means.
On the other hand, the seeming massive inflation of votes for PDP in 2011, especially in the south east, makes me doubt their real performance in the 2011 south east, if you check Jonathan’s votes in 2015 in those areas…again, 2019 will be very interesting. The odds favour PDP if they remain united
Politicians MUST now do real campaign if they hope to win as below news demonstrates:
The All Progressives Congress in Niger State has commenced house-to-house and town hall campaigns to promote the programmes of the party in the state.
Alhaji Mohammed Imam, the Chairman of the party in the state, made the disclosure in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria in Minna on Tuesday.
He said that the campaign and sensitisation visits commenced from wards to districts, local governments, zonal areas and state levels.
“We are using the opportunity to highlight our modest achievements recorded in the last three years of President Muhammadu Buhari and Gov. Abubakar Bello,’’ Imam said.
The APC chieftain said that the forum would give the party the opportunity to also inform its supporters on the judicious utilisation of funds allocated to the state to provide dividends of democracy to the governed.
“Abubakar has reformed our educational sector through the re-construction of classrooms, learning facilities and motivation of teachers,” he said.
Imam explained that the only legacy any responsible government would leave behind for the future generation was the provision of qualitative and sound education, which the present administration was fully committed to.
On the other hand, it appears Osun has been fairly consistent and may not be a bellwether state
OSUN 2011 Presidential Election Results
PDP        188,409
CPC 6,997
ACN 299,711
ANPP 3,617
Total: 498, 734
INEC 2015 Presidential Election Results – Osun
REG. VOTERS: 1,378,113
ACCR VOTERS: 683,169
APC: 383,603
PDP: 249,929
VALID VOTES: 642,615
VOTES CAST: 663,373
ELECTIONS CANCELLED: Irepodun,Ife South, Ife East, Iwo, Orolu, Irewole,Boluwaduro,Atakumosa
2018 Osun Governorship Election
PDP polled 254,698
APC scored 254,345
SDP polled 128,049
ADP recorded 41,742 votes.
Total: 678,834
Cancelled votes are 3498. PUs INVOLVED: 10
Orolu LGA: 947 votes cancelled
Ife South LGA: 1314 Votes cancelled
Ife North LGA: 353 votes cancelled
Osogbo LGA : 884 votes cancelled
Total Votes Cancelled: 3,498

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